Sometimes, an enemy doesn't exist till you go looking for one

Introduction

Another Friday, and another hotel room, but at least this time I remembered to bring my laptop!

Whilst all eyes were of course on Geneva this week, our little corner of the watch collecting world carries on very much behind the scenes regardless, with this week’s featured listings heavily weighted towards the 56GS series. But it’s an auction for a literally heavyweight watch that is undoubtedly the star of this show.

An advance notice that due to yet more travel, next week’s newsletter will most likely be published on Saturday (although there’s a small chance that I may do it on Thursday evening). Should any watches of interest be closing on the Friday, I will highlight them in the chat section.

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James Conrad

Grand Seiko 4420-9000 with early “Diashock” dial

Sadly as with pretty much all listings of the coveted early dial variant of the 4420-9000, there is something to spoil the listing, and in this instance it’s mainly that degradation around the applied GS logo.

As can be seen in if you zoom into the image, there are also some more minor issues with the dial, most notably between the 2 and 3 o’clock indices, but these can probably be overlooked - if you’re prepared to put up with the rather more “in your face” issue, then you’re definitely not going to be concerned about those.

Whilst there are plenty of pictures of the case provided, they’re not really taken from the right angles to determine how well it has survived the years (quite possibly this is deliberate), but if you look carefully around the lugs, it does appear that the case has had quite a bit of ‘attention’ in the past.

Rather oddly, the watch would appear to have the wrong crown - rather that the correct coarse knurled GS crown, it seems to be fitted with the coarse knurled W Seiko crown from the early 57GS references.

Regardless of the issues, I’ve no doubt quite a few people will be watching it closely, but certainly anyone holding out for a great example of one of these should most definitely give it a pass.

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XQB011 bracelet for the 564x-7010

As per Plus9Time’s write-up on the vintage Grand Seiko bracelets, this particular bracelet was only seen on the 5646-7010 in the early catalogues in which the reference was featured, with the bracelet being replaced by XQB070 by 1973.

Those who have ever worn a 56GS on this bracelet may well suspect that the reason for the change was that this bracelet truly is a wrist hair puller. Nevertheless, for those who have an early example of the 5646-7010, it certainly looks attractive on the watch!

There is a second example of this bracelet listed this week, which you can find the listing for here.

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Grand Seiko 5646-7030

There are multiple examples of the sand textured dialed 5646-7030 listed this week. Up first is this listing, which has a pretty scratched up crystal that you’re probably going to want to replace eventually (part number is 300V82GN, and it doesn’t turn up often so you’re going to have to be patient - the last one to be listed on Yahoo was back in December 2023). The dial is very clean though - often these degrade around the edges, and the case - whilst not the best one could hope to find - looks OK.

This is an interesting reference not just for the super dial and more complex case than is to be found on the far more common 5646-7010, but also because it is rather on the small side, with a case diameter of just 33.5mm, and with 17mm lugs.

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Grand Seiko 5646-7020

Later this month I will be traveling to Japan, and one of the many things that I am looking forward to is visiting the newly opened 6th floor of the Seiko Museum in Ginza, which is dedicated to Grand Seiko.

Looking at photos that have been provided by the museum themselves, and those shared with me by collectors fortunate enough to have been able to visit already, it looks as though Grand Seiko have reallly pulled out all the stops and put together a much wider selection of references from the vintage era than they have ever shown before.

Included in the exhibit is a rather better looking example of the reference featured in this listing, the 5646-7020 -

This reference has by far the most aggressively cut faceted crystal on any vintage Grand Seiko, and unfortunately the height and prominence of the crystal does lead it to be vulnerable to knocks. Almost all examples of the reference that you come across will have scratched and dinged crystals as seen on here, but this one is probably better than most (it’s certainly better than a couple to have been listed recently that I felt weren’t good enough to feature).

Now I have to admit that some time back I managed to acquire a couple of NOS crystals for this reference. If you’re (very) patient, they do turn up from time to time.

As such, I’ve been on the lookout for one of these with a scratched up crystal for a long time now, but unfortunately - as can be seen here - when the crystal is scratched up, it typically means the case will be too. Still, I think this would be a great pick-up for someone who is after a wearable example of the watch.

The case on this reference is arguably one of the most complex of any from the vintage era, and in combination with the graduated green dial and faceted crystal really does make the 5646-7020 stand out in the vintage back catalogue.

I don’t doubt that anyone visiting the museum who has bought into Grand Seiko’s modern marketing message (most recently restated in Grand Seiko President Akio Naito’s video presentation of the new releases at Watches and Wonders this week) that the design of the 44GS was the “guiding principle of all Grand Seiko creations” will be stopped in their tracks when they see this piece!

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Grand Seiko 5646-7030

Here’s the second example of the 5646-7030 to be listed this week.

I think it’s actually quite challenging to assess the relative conditions of the cases on the two we have seen so far, given the extremely harsh lighting in used in the first one. However, what can be clearly seen on this example is that degradation around the dial periphery that is all too commonly found on these.

Here, it’s actually pretty minor, and I think quite “liveable with”, so I doubt it will make much of a dent in the potential closing price.

The good news is that the seller confirms the quickset day/date mechanism is working (something that always needs to be checked with 5646 based references), so no worries on that front.

Finally, with a much better condition crystal, I suspect that even with those slight dial issues, this could well end up being the one that is chased most strongly.

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Box, papers, et al, for the first Grand Seiko

Anyone in the fortunate position of owning an example of the first Grand Seiko with its certificate, but missing pretty much everything else that originally accompanied the watch, will be chasing this listing hard.

Do remember however that the key-shaped swingtag will have the movement number corresponding to the certificate hand-written on the back (as can be seen in the final photo in the listing).

Of particular note here is the very good condition of the outer box. As I write this newsletter, bidding has reached 99,600 Yen, and I rather suspect that it has quite a way to go yet before the auction is scheduled to close in about 9 hours from now.

You may well wonder what is missing here, and (except for the watch itself of course!), the answer is - not much. In fact, just the price ticket (that would be found attached to the strap), and the rice paper that was folded over the inner box to protect it from damaging the outerbox.

Remember though that with sets of the first Grand Seiko, it really is all about the certificate and that little swingtag - those can never be replaced if lost, and the chances of you ever finding the correct watch to go with a certificate are, let’s face it, pretty much non-existent.

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Grand seiko 6145-8030 on 18K gold Bear bracelet

The last example of a 6145-8030 to sell that I am aware of went for around 1.8M Yen, but it should be stressed that that example was in much, much better condition than the one we see here.

However, this example of what has become one of the most highly sought after reference from the vintage era has one ‘little’ bonus extra in its favour that may well end up with quite a few willing to overlook the questionable condition of the watch itself.

I have only ever seen one other example of this bracelet in the past. Manufactured by Bear (who produced several very intriguing 18K gold textured bracelets), it must surely be the case that this bracelet was designed specifically for this exact reference?

I’ve returned to this listing multiple times a day since it first went up, thinking “shall I go for it?”, but ultimately the answer is going to be “no”, purely based on the condition of the case, which sadly looks to have been quite heavily polished in the past. It’s not too bad from the front, and maybe the hand hammered top surfaces have remained untouched, but with no photos showing the case flanks, we have only the shot of the caseback to go on, and that doesn’t look great at all -

It’s a real shame, because I sorely want that bracelet. But perhaps one will turn up at some point in the future on a better condition watch, or even just on its own!

Regarding the dial by the way - I rather suspect that it will turn out to be much better than we might perceive in that photo. I’m not entirely convinced that the dial is discoloured in any way - more likely what we are seeing is the result of a shadow cast by the camera that has taken that straight on photo.

Note the reflection on the second hand, which closely corresponds to the seemingly darker portions of the dial.

Maybe the case will turn out to be better than anticipated? If so - and if I’m right about that dial - this may well end up being a very nice surprise indeed for the winning bidder. It’s the sort of listing that - were one to have the opportunity to actually examine the watch in person (or if at least it was better presented) - the amount one was willing to pay to acquire the piece could well double.

All it will take is for two people to take a big gamble, and we could see this one take off. Or maybe, whoever it is with that single bid of 650,000 Yen will end up with the bargain of the year so far!

Not only is the watch listed in the Seiko “Others” subcategory (rather than the “Grand Seiko” one), the reference number isn’t mentioned anywhere in the listing at all, so unless you read this newsletter (!), or are meticulous enough to look through every single Seiko listing on Yahoo, you probably will not even be aware of the listing.

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Preston Packard

The first Grand Seiko with raised logo black dial

Remarkably this joker still continues to claim that he “cannot determine if the dial has been redone or rewritten”. Not sure it could get any more obvious than this one, but no doubt he’ll surprise us one day!

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Grand Seiko 6145-8020

Like the aforefeatured (is that a word? well it is now) 5646-7020, the 614x-8020’s are another rather obvious example that the modern marketing message that all Grand Seikos that followed the 44GS adhered to the “Grand Seiko Style” is - err, how can I put this nicely? - somewhat spurious.

In pristine condition, and on their original bracelets, they are highly sought after. Sadly what is presented here has neither of those qualities.

If you’re after an example one of these references (they came in both date, and day-date, and with both white and ‘blue’ dials), I strongly recommend that you hold out for a much better quality piece. Whilst the dial on this one looks great, the case leaves a lot to be desired, and has been.

Here’s how they should look (the dial on this white example took on a rather lovely patination over the years):

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Grand Seiko 5646-7030

In descending order of the number of bids, this is the third example of this reference to be featured this week, but with even the most cursory of glances it will be clear why it finds itself in the bad guy section of the newsletter!

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Redone coloured dial summary

I close with the usual copy/pasted reminder to steer clear of any vintage Grand Seikos with coloured dials similar to the above. This is not a comprehensive photo - there are many references that get this “treatment”, so be careful out there.

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Post script

You may notice that there are no “subscribe to this Substack” buttons in this week’s newsletter. That is because following the debacle last week, I am in no mood to encourage more signups to this newsletter whilst its future is in doubt.

Whilst I very much appreciate the many private messages of support, going forward I will neither tolerate abusive behaviour here, nor take direct action myself to moderate that behaviour by either deleting comments or banning users.

Anyone with an paid membership who steps out of line will be invited privately to leave, with the balance of their subscription costs refunded in full. Should they decline that invitation, no future paid subscriptions will be accepted from anyone (I will simply turn off the Stripe connection).

If this happens, all paid subscriptions will automatically terminate on their next renewal date - this means those with a monthly subscription will see their subscription end within the month, and those with annual subscriptions will see their subscription end within the year. The newsletters will of course continue to be published even when just a single subscriber remains.

Civil discussion, on any relevant topic, is always very warmly welcomed.

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