Dec 4, 2023Liked by The Grand Seiko Guy

Why the year end deadline? I’d love to be proven wrong but there’s just no chance this sells at 80k via Substack within 3 weeks. We all appreciate and get the significance and rarity of the watch but the market is just not ready for a vintage GS at this price imo, and probably never will be - for 80k USD you can now buy a Journe Chronometre Bleu, a Nautilus, 3 steel Panda Daytonas, a 15202 AND a Streamliner, a DB27, an LM101, or even an RM05. If the goal is to genuinely sell this, it would have to be at auction and if it did sell at Phillips for that price the ancillary benefits would probably be great for us all.

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Dec 5, 2023·edited Dec 5, 2023Author

I'd love you to be proven wrong as well!

You might be surprised at how many vintage Grand Seiko references have sold privately at similar (and indeed, greater) prices. I've just never made any big noises about the transactions. Maybe I should have?

Yes, the overall watch market is in "a bit of a lull" at the moment, but that's why these are priced where they are. It's quite simply what I would be prepared to let one of them go for now.

I took into account what the 4580-7000 achieved at Loupe This just last week, which - if you want to compare it to the commodity pieces in the current market - was a very strong result.

Right now you can probably take your pick of literally dozens (in some cases, hundreds, nay, thousands as it turns out) of examples of all the watches you list. Let's take a look on C24 -

CB - 13 listed.

Nautilus - 3,222 listed.

Daytona 116500LN - 205 listed.

AP 15202 - 356 listed.

Streamliner - 90 listed.

DB27 - 20 listed.

LM101 - 18 listed.

RM05 - 39 listed.

As an aside, every single pawn shop in Japan will have multiple examples of the Daytonas available. C24 isn't even the tip of the iceberg with regards availability of these references.

Vintage Grand Seiko are not commodity pieces, and frankly not remotely comparable to any of the above. Nobody who "invests" in commodity watches hoping to make some money should go anywhere near vintage Grand Seiko.

Cliche it may be, but these are watches for those serious collectors who respect horology and understand the significance of this reference in particular, not pieces of jewelry to impress as many people they possibly can.

Total number of VFA's (all references) currently listed on C24? One.

Total number of VFA's (all references) currently listed on Rakuten? Six.

The reason for the year end deadline is simple - that's the maximum amount of time I'm prepared to let these sit around at these prices. If neither sell, it's honestly not a problem - they can come out again at some distant time in the future. There are plenty more pieces in the safe (but certainly no more 4580-7010's!).

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