So long, and thanks for all the fish
So long, and thanks for all the fish
Don’t panic.
Scrolling back through the newsletters that I have published on this Substack made me realise that it might have been a good idea to number them, then I could easily have told you how many Friday round-ups of the Yahoo Auctions in Japan I’ve written.
As it is, I didn’t number them (and I’m certainly not going to count them manually now!), but I did find out that the very first “proper” one went out on October 22nd 20211. At the time, I chose to create the paid subscription tier not so much in an attempt to generate an income, but because were there to be even one person willing to pay $5 a month to read these missives, it would be an incentive to ensure that I kept at it - I am not typically one that is very good at keeping to routines.
I thought that perhaps there might be a couple of hundred people worldwide who would be interested enough to subscribe to this Substack to read the general posts, and maybe 10% of those would be motivated enough to take out a paid subscription.
It turns out I was wrong by more than a factor of 10, with close to 3,000 people signing up, and around 220 of those taking out paid subscriptions.
When you consider just how small a niche our little area of horological interest is, not to mention the fact that I haven’t spent a single cent on any marketing, those are some pretty impressive numbers, and up until I turned off paid subs a month ago, both were growing at a very consistent rate.
“The Grand Seiko Guy” evolved purely from my passion for the incredible history of the brand, and a desire to share that passion openly. Back when I started collecting vintage Grand Seiko, there was almost no information regarding the vintage era published in English anywhere, and I think it’s probably fair to say perhaps as few as a handful of collectors outside Japan (you know who you are!).
Clearly the subscription numbers for this Substack show that in the intervening years, interest has grown substantially, and I’d like to think that the effort I have put into researching the brand and sharing that knowledge have something to do with that. I remain of the conviction that vintage Grand Seiko deserves to be far more widely appreciated than it is even today.
So I guess there might be some concerns that my exit from publicly contributing to our community might leave somewhat of a void, but I think those concerns would be misplaced.
Firstly, with regards to the knowledge and understanding of the vintage references, I think we are pretty much done, with everything documented in quite some detail in the series of articles I wrote on the vintage Seiko Catalogues. I honestly believe that this is by some considerable margin the most accurate information on the watches of the vintage era published to-date. I had hoped to expand on that knowledge with more detailed series-based articles, but sadly didn’t get much further on that plan than the primers.
One day it would be nice to formally organise and publish the database that I have created that details every reference and its appearance in catalogues and issues of Seiko News and Seiko Sales, because it is evident from my most recent visit to the Seik Museum that even Grand Seiko themselves don’t have as much factual data on their vintage output compared to what I’m sat on!
Another thing that has changed significantly over the years is that whilst when I started trading vintage Grand Seiko I was pretty much the only person outside Japan doing so (and certainly the only one doing so exclusively), these days there are many more options for collectors when it comes to sourcing.
When buying watches for myself from Yahoo, it has become very evident in recent years that there are far more people now confident enough to go direct to what probably could be considered the primary source for these references. Yes there are always risks when buying remotely from Yahoo Japan Auctions, but certainly I would hope that most paid subscribers have learned enough from these newsletters so as to know what to look out for when dipping your toes into that channel.
For other sources, I have also highlighted in past newsletters many dealers in Japan who can be trusted to buy direct from; a quick check of C24 brings up no fewer than 59 listings for vintage Grand Seikos (although you do need to have your wits about you - the very first one has a redone dial!); and there are several dealers outside Japan now who are very active in this area.
As always, the advice remains the same - caveat emptor, and buy the seller.
So in summary, I don’t think you’re going to miss me too much :)
Now, on with the final feature on auctions over at Yahoo Japan this week. And we kick off with an absolute blinder.
Arthur Dent
Grand Seiko 6185-8010
The watch with the most bids as at the time of publication is another example of a listing that I plan to bid on myself. Historically, this has always been a bit of a conflict for me in the newsletters, but whilst I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of times I haven’t listed something that I was intending to bid on, the number of times that I have shared such listings runs well into three figures. So my conscience is clear!
I actually tried to buy this watch earlier in the week, because it was listed on one of the business-to-business auction Japanese auction sites that I subscribe to (sorry folks - it is basically impossible for individuals to get access to these B2B auctions). Unfortunately, I screwed up my bidding, and clearly this is the guy who won it, because he has wasted no time in throwing it straight onto Yahoo Japan in order to flip it.
Whether or not he actually gets his money back remains to be seen. I’m not going to tell you exactly what he paid for it, but what I am prepared to share with you is that the price he paid starts with a 3. Frankly I’m not entirely convinced that it’s going to go that high on Yahoo.
If you are interested in picking this one up, be sure to make great use of the parallax opportunities presented in the different photos to work out what issues are on the dial, and what are on the crystal (spoiler alert - they are, fortunately, pretty much all on the crystal).
What will probably hold the potential price back more than the state of the crystal however is the case. It’s not that bad, but as can be seen in the zoomed in shot below, the edges and corners have softened up a little
I’ve seen them a lot worse than this, but we will find out on Sunday evening just how important such details are viewed by the very many collectors and dealers who will no doubt be actively chasing this one down.
Personally I would value this one at perhaps just 30% of what I’d consider an absolute mint example to be worth. Some may think that a little extreme, but the years have taught me that the truly exceptional examples of rare references such as this one are very, very few and far between, and that there are top-tier watch collectors out there now who more than willing to pay the premiums required to acquire them.
Grand Seiko 43999 SD dial
I’ve included this one with the good guys because at least everything about this SD dialed 43999 is “correct” (or have I got that wrong and the crown has the W Seiko in relief?), with the watch dating from August 1963, the first month of production, and a movement number commencing 30.
The dial looks mostly clean, but do note the scratch at the top of the date window.
However it can’t go without mention that the case has clearly been extensively polished, and frankly, if you’re after one of these, I’d recommend you give this one a pass.
Grand Seiko 4420-9000 early dial
This is a relisting of a watch that was featured in a newsletter a couple of weeks ago. The reason for the relisting is not made clear, but last time around the auction only closed for 156,000 Yen. A price which - even taking into account the issue with the dial - could certainly be considered a bit of a bargain, so perhaps the seller simply wasn’t happy with the price and thought he’d give it another go.
XQB240 bracelet for the 5646-7030
Listed as “dead stock” - and who am I to disagree with that description - don’t mistake this bracelet for the far more common XQB070 (for the 564x-7010/1), XQB040 (for the 564x-8000) or XQB220 (for the 6156-8040).
What is immediately obvious about this bracelet is the curved endlinks (so it would fit none of the above mentioned references). What is not so obvious is that those endlinks are sized to fit a 17mm lug width, so the only vintage Grand Seiko reference that this bracelet is designed for is the 5646-7030.
It doesn’t come up very often, so it’s not surprising to see that there is quite a fight for it already. The bidding is sat at 42,500 Yen, and there’s still 3 days to go.
Talking of the 6156-8040…
Grand Seiko 6156-8040
This is a particularly sharp looking example of the final “Special”. The lighting is a little odd, which in some photos gives the impression that the case and bracelet may have been refinished, but I don’t think they have - happy to have your thoughts in the comments!
There is a very slight issue with the dial if you look carefully at the periphery between 11 and 2, but it’s minimal, and I don’t think detracts too much from the attractiveness of this piece.
Crystal for the Grand Seiko 5646-7020
If you see a 5646-7020 joining your collection at anytime in your future, you’d be wise to pick up a NOS crystal for it, because the crystals on the reference are pretty much always scratched up.
These don’t turn up very often, but I can’t help thinking this seller may well be sat on a box of them because I’m pretty sure I’ve bought 3 of these from him over the years!
Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz
A black dialed first Grand Seiko
By now, you certainly don’t need me to warn you off watches such as this one!
Grand Seiko 6146-8000 with fake Arabesque dial
It’s surprising how many of these turn up. Two obvious giveaways that you shouldn’t be touching this one even with a barge pole. Firstly, it is of course the wrong case. The correct -8010 case (which is of course marked 6146-8010 on the caseback) for the “Arabesque” has an additional facet between upper and lower case flanks, and the entire right half of the dial code should be printed between the 30 and 27 minute markers. Here you can see even without having to zoom in that the “AD” extends over the 27 minute marker.
As per usual, our “friend” has a number of watches listed this week that should be avoided, and quite frankly I’m rather glad this is the last time I’ll ever have to mention his wares!
The first Grand Seiko with raised logo dial
Business in the front.
Party in the rear.
Sorry, but no. Just no.
Grand Seiko 6145-8000
A very obviously redone dial. You won’t need me to highlight these for you in the future :)
Redone coloured dial summary
I close - for the final time - with the usual copy/pasted reminder to steer clear of any vintage Grand Seikos with coloured dials similar to the above. This is not a comprehensive photo - there are many references that get this “treatment”, so be careful out there.
Housekeeping
I’m off to Japan on Sunday for 10 days. When I return, I will start to process the subscription cancellations en masse (I’m going to do a couple of test cancellations in the next day or so just to make sure they go through OK). Anyone with an annual subscription should receive a pro-rated refund.
As for what will become of this substack, for now I’m going to leave it as is, save for on my return from Japan making all articles available to all subscribers (otherwise I don’t think those with historical paid subs will be able to access what was previously published just for them).
For now, I will leave the chat open, but would request that you guys play nice in there. I will pop in from time to time to say hello!
“You know," said Arthur, "it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse, and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young."
"Why, what did she tell you?"
"I don't know, I didn't listen.”
Which - counting the number of elapsed weeks - means (to the best of my recollection in all that time I have only missed publishing a Friday newsletter once) this is the 140th of these newsletters.
Cheers Gerald for all the guidance and knowledge you’ve shared these past years, shining a light on a woefully neglected corner of the watch world. I know that descending into basements in Ginza was far less intimidating with one of your primers in my back pocket! Hope you stick around as the community will be far far poorer for your absence. To bigger and better things no doubt… Onwards! 🍷
Gerald, I am going to miss your weekly summary of the auctions. Your wealth of knowledge and willingness to share cannot be overstated. Not many who share our passion for vintage (and modern) Grand Seikos take the time and effort to inform others who are curious and excited about this little hobby of ours. Well done, sir. I, for one, am hoping you will at some point find it in you to "formally organise and publish the database". Perhaps a book or two as Ephemeral Tom suggested. I would pay severely for a copy (considering how much I've paid for catalogs and Seiko Sales publications over the past years). Good luck to you in your new adventure and I hope to hear more of that endeavor in the future.